Tag Archive | PREDICTS

New Paper: Local factors mediate the response of biodiversity to land use on two African mountains

I know that it has been a while since I posted anything here. The daily responsibilities and effort required for my PhD program are taking quite a toll on the time I have available for other non-phd matters (for instance curating this blog). I apologize for this and hope to post some more tutorials and discussion post in the future. However at the moment my personal research reserved 105% of my available time.  But the scientific blogosphere is generally in a bit of a crisis I heard.

Anyway, today I just want to quickly share the exciting news that my MSc thesis I conducted at the Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate has passed scientific peer review and is now in early view in Animal Conservation. I am quite proud of this work as it represents the first lead-author paper I managed to publish that involved primary research and data collection.

Short breakdown: During my masters and also now in my PhD I am extensively working with the PREDICTS database, which is a global project aiming at collating local biodiversity estimates in different land-use systems across the entire world. The idea for this work came as I realized that many of the categories in the PREDICTS database are affected by some level of subjectivity. Local factors – such as specific land-use forms, vegetation conditions and species assemblage composition – could alter general responses of biodiversity to land use that have been generalized across larger scales. Thus the simple idea was to compare ‘PREDICTS-style’ model predictions with independent biodiversity estimates raised at the same local scale. But see abstract and paper below.


Jung et al (2016) – Local factors mediate the response of biodiversity to land use on two African mountains



Land-use change is the single biggest driver of biodiversity loss in the tropics. Biodiversity models can be useful tools to inform policymakers and conservationists of the likely response of species to anthropogenic pressures, including land-use change. However, such models generalize biodiversity responses across wide areas and many taxa, potentially missing important characteristics of particular sites or clades. Comparisons of biodiversity models with independently collected field data can help us understand the local factors that mediate broad-scale responses. We collected independent bird occurrence and abundance data along two elevational transects in Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania and the Taita Hills, Kenya. We estimated the local response to land use and compared our estimates with modelled local responses based on a large database of many different taxa across Africa. To identify the local factors mediating responses to land use, we compared environmental and species assemblage information between sites in the independent and African-wide datasets. Bird species richness and abundance responses to land use in the independent data followed similar trends as suggested by the African-wide biodiversity model, however the land-use classification was too coarse to capture fully the variability introduced by local agricultural management practices. A comparison of assemblage characteristics showed that the sites on Kilimanjaro and the Taita Hills had higher proportions of forest specialists in croplands compared to the Africa-wide average. Local human population density, forest cover and vegetation greenness also differed significantly between the independent and Africa-wide datasets. Biodiversity models including those variables performed better, particularly in croplands, but still could not accurately predict the magnitude of local species responses to most land uses, probably because local features of the land management are still missed. Overall, our study demonstrates that local factors mediate biodiversity responses to land use and cautions against applying biodiversity models to local contexts without prior knowledge of which factors are locally relevant.


New paper: A first global assessment of remaining biodiversity intactness

Anthropogenic land use is one of the dominant drivers of ongoing biodiversity loss on a global scale and it has often been asked how much biodiversity loss is “too much” for sustaining ecosystem function. Our new paper in the journal Science came out last week and attempts to quantify for the first time the global biodiversity intactness within the planetary boundary framework. I am absolutely delighted to have contributed to this study and it received quite a bit of media attention so far ( https://www.altmetric.com/details/9708902 ) with a number of nice articles in the BBC and the Guardian.

Biodiversity intactness of ecological assemblages for species abundance. Source: Newbold et al. 2016

Biodiversity intactness of ecological assemblages for species abundance. Source: Newbold et al. 2016

In our study we calculated the Biodiversity intactness index (BII) first proposed by Scholes and Biggs (2005) for the entire world using the local biodiversity estimates from the PREDICTS project and combined them with the best available down-scaled land-use information to date. We find that many terrestrial biomes are already well beyond the proposed biodiversity planetary boundary (previously defined and set as a precautionary 10% reduction of biodiversity intactness). Unless these ongoing trends are decelerated and stopped in the near future it is likely that biodiversity loss might corroborate national and international biodiversity conservation targets, ecosystem functioning and long-term sustainable development.

  • Newbold, Tim, et al. “Has land use pushed terrestrial biodiversity beyond the planetary boundary? A global assessment.” Science 353.6296 (2016): 288-291. DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf2201
  • Scholes, R. J., and R. Biggs. “A biodiversity intactness index.” Nature 434.7029 (2005): 45-49. DOI: 10.1038/nature03289

The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

New article in which I am also involved. I have told the readers of the blog about the PREDICTS initiative before. Well, the open-access article describing the last stand of the database has just been released as early-view article. So if you are curious about one of the biggest databases in the world investigating impacts of anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity, please have a look. As we speak the data is used to define new quantitative indices of global biodiversity decline valid for multiple taxa (and not only vertebrates like WWF living planet index).



Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.

I know that I haven’t been particular active on this blog in the last months. I am currently quite busy with writing my Thesis and programming. I am gonna make it up later 🙂

The PREDICTS project – We need your data!

As part of my Thesis project I have recently joined up with the researchers and interns of the PREDICTS project. PREDICTS stands for Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (yeah, fancy and down-to-the-point acronym) and is aiming to investigate the impact of various human pressures on biological diversity on a global scale. PREDICTS gets its data from contributing authors and is constantly looking for new data contributors. All contributors will become coauthors of a paper describing the database and  at the end of the project the whole database will be released to the public!

We want your data! For instance Wildcat (Felis sylvestris) encounters over land-use gradients!

We want your data! For instance Wildcat (Felis sylvestris) encounters in different habitat types!

If you have diversity or community composition data collected from more than one terrestrial site which are somehow influenced by humanity and are raised using a standardized methodology, then it is more than likely that we could use it. What we need is the

  • Locations of sampling points, as precisely as possible
    (with the coordinate system used, if possible)
  • An indication of the type of land cover that each sampling point represents
    (e.g. primary forest, secondary forest, intensively-farmed crop, hedgerow)
  • An indication of how intensively the site is used by people
  • Data on the presence / absence, or ideally a measure of abundance, of each species at each site
  • The date(s) that each measurement was taken

We need more openness in terms of data sharing in conservation and ecology research! It is unbelievable that some important research data even today can go lost if for instance the original author died or his lab burned to the ground. Some might argue that it should be mandatory to share data if your research is 100% funded by public sources. Some understandable reasons that speak against data sharing after publication are for instance that you are a young emerging scientist and want to keep your hardly earned golden eggs to yourself. However this can be debated as well as data sharing not only gives you more citations, but maybe even into contact with other researchers in your field. In other cases researchers sometimes don’t want to share raw sampling data because of conservation concerns, but even here there are options to coarsen coordinates before public release.

Recent initiatives on openness in terms of ecological data sharing like https://datadryad.org/ and http://figshare.com/ already provide a splendid place where you as an Author can dump raw data from papers you wrote years ago. You can even place the raw data from your most current projects and put an embargo on the download so that the item will be released to the public for instance one year after the associated article has been published.


For my thesis I am especially looking for all kinds of African community data that has been published. We already have a lot of studies in the database, but for my project i need more data especially of less sampled taxa (insects, amphibians,…), different temporal resolutions and a greater diversity of land-use types.  So especially if you have data on African species communities in any form (diversity metrics, abundance metrics, I even take occurence matrices) which were sampled in somehow anthropogenic disturbed habitats: Please contact me or wait for me to contact you 🙂

Martin Jung

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